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old hippie
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 Posted - 09/22/2008 : 4:59:57 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by PABiker
I believe that with the vastness of space and all that exists within it the likelyhood is that life exists elswhere. I also believe that if a species exists capable of travel throughout the universe then they must be of a significantly higher intelligence.
. . It was over forty years ago that I first read, in one of Issac Asimov's articles, about the Drake Equation. It factors in such variables as the estimated number of stars in our galaxy, the age of a solar system, the length of time for a life form to develop into a technical civilization, the estimated age of the universe, and so on. Drake determined that there was a realistic probability ( I can't recall the exact figure) of another civilization in the universe.
If one accepts the suppositions of the Drake Equation (reasonable), then the conclusion is also reasonable that there will be some form of life somewhere else in the universe. But the only real requirement for interstellar travel would be technical ability, not intelligence. We have come quite a long ways in the former (over some millenia) but I'd still have to agree with Biker's assessment of the median level of human intelligence - at least as displayed in national behaviors.
....Given enough time, it is likely that Earthlings will also develop some sort of galactic travel; I don't think that necessarily implies that our social behavior will be any better. I would hope so, but I won't give you long odds on it.
. . . . Chances are, a century or so from now, we will still find petty things to squabble over.
As for me, I'll adjourn to the beach and wait in the sun, with a drink in my hand, for the LGM to arrive. I wonder if they will wear uniforms? Or is their Tardis climate-controlled?
Dum vivimus, vivamus!
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abstract
Forum Member
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Posted - 09/23/2008 : 01:42:22 AM
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quote:
It was over forty years ago that I first read, in one of Issac Asimov's articles, about the Drake Equation. It factors in such variables as the estimated number of stars in our galaxy, the age of a solar system, the length of time for a life form to develop into a technical civilization, the estimated age of the universe, and so on. Drake determined that there was a realistic probability ( I can't recall the exact figure) of another civilization in the universe.
The "Drake Equation" looks pretty, but to me it's complete nonsense. He takes a number of factors, few (if any) of which are known, and multiplies them together to "calculate" the number of civilizations in the universe.
It's pretty much the same as doing this: The number (N) of civilizations in the universe is given by the formula N=L+R, where L is the number of civilizations in the left half of the universe, and R is the number of civilizations in the right half of the universe. Plug in your guesses for L and R, and you've got your answer!
http://www.csicop.org/si/2006-03/cosmos.html
"The Drake Equation is simply a way to organize our ignorance in order to permit rational discussion. R* is the only factor in this so-called equation that has any current observational bounds..."
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go n nude
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Posted - 09/23/2008 : 04:25:06 AM
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Facts they don't want to hear about. An x veteran of SAC in USAF who encountered a close up ufo experience says he was told he didn't see anything or do anything. He is not alone many have had such an experience and yes they were told too! They don't exsist. Much to their surprise it wasn't fiction they saw. Something out of this world not likely. Where/Who/Why is one we may never know!
go n nude
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old hippie
Forum Member
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Posted - 09/23/2008 : 11:03:46 AM
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I don't think anyone, even the most fervent seeker of E-T contact, would claim that the Drake equation is any more than a means to organize the discussion, with perhaps a reasonable estimate of a value for N, maybe valid within an order of magnitude (or so).
. Whether the actual count is hundreds or pairs, it seems reasonable to me to accept the likelihood that there is another civilization somewhere. That does NOT extend to a suggestion that there is any discernible probability that two of these cultures would ever meet, much less that this planet has been the locale of multiple mysterious visits.
I still maintain that "unidentified" means we don't know what it was, and the least likely answer should not be the first suggestion.
Dum vivimus, vivamus!
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go n nude
Forum Member
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Posted - 10/15/2008 : 11:38:31 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by PABiker
I believe that with the vastness of space and all that exists within it the likelyhood is that life exists elswhere. I also believe that if a species exists capable of travel throughout the universe then they must be of a significantly higher intelligence. If, therefore, they posess this level of intelligence I doubt they would visit Earth outside of scientific curiosity and study. In the AAA book of space we must be the Newark NJ of the universe. With the constant fighting between nations and the crime in the streets, why would a intelligent creature visit here? We have a planet full of beauty, but it's definitely "visit at your own risk".
I agree 100%, there have been 000's sightings and their in your face visit could be their last, National Defence would probally shoot them down Quick, and we'd still be wondering if they exsist. Those who have seen actual UFO craft say they were told they didn't see anything. That will keep everyone happy !The Goverment wouldn't LIE ,God Forbid! In God They Trust.
go n nude
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UFO's Facts or Just Fiction??
